I've been up all night, writing, and occasionally checking the weather. By four a.m. this morning, a couple of the stations were reporting that the new projected landfall would be closer to Port Arthur, TX, which is just on the Texas / Louisiana border. I'm looking at the jet stream, and I think it's still going to shift more during the day.
Look:

There's a small pressure system off the coast of Texas where the jest stream is pushing toward the east, and it may be just enough to funnel the hurricane into the northernly flowing jet stream. If so, probably sometime late this evening, we're going to see it shifting more north/northeast than it has been so far, which means that places like Lake Charles are going to take a phenomenal direct hit, and places like Lafayette and Baton Rouge, which will be on the east side of those winds, will get a pretty strong impact, gusts-wise.
Baton Rouge has areas which tend to flood pretty badly, but the majority drains decently well, even in heavy downpours. It's going to be the wind that's going to create problems with downed trees, etc.
Of course, I am so clearly not a weather person, I will be delighted if I'm completely wrong. I certainly don't wish this storm on anyone, but I'm not sure how much more Louisiana can take.
Posted by toni at September 23, 2005 05:38 AM